Is Russia-Ukraine Ceasefire Coming in 2026

Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelensky met U.S. President Donald Trump at Florida on Sunday, holding a talk on ceasefire for Russia-Ukraine war.

After the meeting, U.S. President Trump observed that they are ‘getting a lot closer, maybe very close’ to agree on how to end the Russia-Ukraine war. The two-hour meeting followed with an interaction with the international media, wherein Ukraine President Zelensky said that an agreement on security guarantee for Ukraine has been reached.

President Trump, however, was cautious saying that they were 95 per cent of the way to such an agreement.

Russia-Ukraine ceasefire has been the most closely watched out of desirables for the world community in 2025. The year 2026 may bring good news for the war-ravaged nations if things go well.

However, the peace process involves a lot of complications and dichotomies which need to be thrashed out by all the stake-holders: Russia and Ukraine first, then the United States and the European Union second.

In a simplified way, the following are the points that explain, to some extent, the path to peace between Russia and Ukraine. The path to peace however is an uphill one.

The Territorial Complication

Russia, after the invasion in February 2022, today controls 19.2 per cent of Ukraine territory (44,800 square miles). Russia had earlier in 2014 annexed Crimea—the regions of Donetsk and Luhansk - together known as Donbas.

But Russia hasn’t yet acquired the whole of Donbas—which it wants. Now, Russia wants the whole of the Donbas region from Ukraine, and according to media reports is ready to swap with Ukraine other territories under its control. Ukraine is not forthcoming on this point.

This Donbas region apart, the peace process also involves other territorial complications.

No NATO Membership

Russian President Vladimir Putin demands that the West leaders pledge in writing that NATO would not be expanded eastwards, and also that Ukraine would include in its very Constitution that it will not join NATO. And that NATO also will state in its statutes that Ukraine will not be included.

Security Guarantee

Ukraine has been demanding security guarantee from the United States. The span, according to initial demand as reported by the media, was for 50 years. But the draft peace framework is now envisaging a security guarantee span of 15 years.

Russia, on the other hand, does not want any foreign troop deployment in Ukraine. This is the dichotomy on security guarantee.

Meanwhile, as the ceasefire involves European Union as well, EU member countries, according to a X post by French President Emmanuel Macron, would be meeting early next year to discuss the matter.